The famous frameworks people use to guess where bitcoin's price goes — charted free, and graded honestly. Every model here has been impressively right and embarrassingly wrong. That's the point of the page.
Model 00
Weekly closes since 2010 with the overlays chartists actually use. Scroll or pinch to zoom, drag to pan, toggle everything.
Chartist's footnoteThe 200-week SMA is Bitcoin's most famous long-term support — price has historically spent bear-market bottoms kissing it. Weekly data is approximate before 2017 and live exchange data after; the overlays compute from the full series either way.
Model 01
Plot bitcoin's entire price history with both axes on logarithmic scales, and 17 years of chaos flattens into something eerie: a nearly straight line. The power law model says price grows proportional to (days since 2009)~5.8 — the same mathematical shape as city populations and networks generally, which supporters argue is no accident: more users beget more value begets more users.
Report cardThe best backward fit of any model — price has oscillated around this line through four manias and four collapses. The honest critique: fitting the past isn't a mechanism, and a trend that held for 17 years is not a law of physics. It implies steady grinding growth with booms above the line and busts below it — never promising which one is next.
Model 02
Every four years the halving cuts new supply in half, and price history has rhymed around it: a run-up after each halving, a mania top roughly 12–18 months later, a brutal crash, a quiet accumulation, repeat. This chart overlays all four cycles, each starting at its halving with price indexed to 100.
Report cardThe rhymes are real — and so is the fade: each cycle's multiple has been smaller than the last (100x → 30x → 8x → ~3x), which is what you'd expect as the asset grows up. Skeptics note the cycles also line up suspiciously well with global liquidity cycles, so the halving may be the calendar, not the cause. Either way, the 2025 top and 2026 drawdown fit the script uncomfortably well.
Model 03
The 2019 celebrity model. It values bitcoin by scarcity alone: divide existing supply ("stock") by new annual production ("flow"), note that gold's high ratio tracks its value, and project bitcoin's ratio — which doubles every halving — onto price. The result is a staircase that climbs toward the moon.
Report cardLooked clairvoyant from 2019–2021, then broke badly: the model demanded ~$100K+ in 2022 while price fell to $16K, and its post-2024 step (~$500K) sits far above reality. Scarcity clearly matters — but scarcity alone ignores demand, and a model that can't be wrong in your lifetime isn't really a model. Shown here as the cautionary exhibit.
The fine print
Power law says grind upward with wild swings. The cycle says the swings have a rhythm. S2F said scarcity is destiny — and got humbled. None of them is a promise; all of them broke someone who bet the house on them. Models are maps drawn from old terrain, and bitcoin keeps adding new terrain.
Chart data: approximate monthly closes (2010–2026) for readability; live price via public exchange API. Power law fit: price ≈ 1.0×10−17 × days5.8. S2F steps are the published model's approximate epoch levels.